Even the Royals threaten to be respectable — but not too respectable, lest they separate themselves from this modest, evenly matched lot.

Eighty-five wins might be enough to win the division. Any of the five Central clubs could reach that total. Any of the five could implode.

Such unpredictability makes the Central baseball's most fascinating division. Assessing these teams, you can talk yourself into almost anything.

Here's my predicted order of finish, knowing it might turn out completely the other way.

1. Twins

Why they'll win: Starting pitching.

First baseman Justin Morneau and catcher Joe Mauer form a terrific nucleus, but the Twins' rotation — a collection of strike throwers between the ages of 24 and 27 — is the team's biggest competitive advantage.

Left-hander Francisco Liriano is far enough removed from Tommy John surgery to finally realize his potential. The middle-inning relief could be wobbly, but right-hander Jesse Crain looks ready to reclaim his setup role and closer Joe Nathan is one of the best in the game.

Why they'll falter: An offensive dropoff is inevitable.

Mauer's health is the biggest concern; his .413 on-base percentage and defensive presence are irreplaceable. Yet, even if Mauer and new third baseman Joe Crede play regularly, the offense figures to decline.

The Twins finished third in the league in runs last season largely because they batted .305 with runners in scoring position. Teams rarely sustain such high batting averages in clutch situations from season to season.

4. Royals

Why they'll win: Someone has to, right?

Actually, the off-season additions of center fielder Coco Crisp, first baseman Mike Jacobs and relievers Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth — combined with progression from the team's better young players — could vault the Royals from a 75-win team to contending status.

The Royals are particularly excited about their bullpen's ability to A) get big strikeouts and B) shorten games. Right-handed starter Zack Grienke is on the verge of major stardom, and the team's overall depth is better than in previous seasons.

Why they'll falter: The team is just not that good.

The rotation is thin beyond righties Grienke, Gil Meche and possibly Kyle Davies, and the offense is suspect.

The Royals' on-base/slugging percentages at each position last season exceeded the AL averages at only second and third base — and the team did not retain its primary second baseman, Mark Grudzielanek.

If third baseman Alex Gordon and designated hitter Billy Butler develop into middle-of-the-order threats, no problem. But as pointed out by Newsday's Ken Davidoff, the Royals spent on low-OBP hitters (Crisp, Jacobs) and set-up relievers (Farnsworth, Cruz). Those are rarely the best areas in which to invest.

5. Tigers

Why they'll win: Because they cannot possibly be as bad as they were last season, when they finished last after getting picked by many to reach the World Series.

The defense will improve with the additions of shortstop Adam Everett and catcher Gerald Laird and full-time return of Brandon Inge to third base. The offense, on paper, is not as threatening, but Miguel Cabrera and Co. should be good enough.

Why they'll falter: Questions about age, questions about injuries and, most of all, questions about pitching.

The Tigers are leaning toward sticking righty Rick Porcello in their rotation and right-hander Ryan Perry in their bullpen, thinking the two youngsters could replicate the performances of righties Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya in 2006. Such moves would be unnecessary if the Tigers were comfortable with what they had.

No pitcher on this staff inspires great confidence — not Verlander, not right-hander Jeremy Bonderman, not closer Brandon Lyon, and certainly not lefties Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis. Manager Jim Leyland is in the last year of his contract, adding to the team's volatility.

Simply put, too much can go wrong.